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The Global Macro Outlook:Slower global growth in 2018&20

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The Global Macro Outlook:Slower global growth in 2018&20

The cycle rolls: we forecast 2018 and 2019 global real GDP growth (2.7% and2.6% respectively) to slow versus 2017 (2.9%). Nonetheless, Global real GDPgrowth is forecast to remain in “the long grinding cycle” of 2.5-3.0% pa, below.

    Demographic headwinds: With the high-frequency industrial sector databeginning to roll over, we believe it is time to focus back on two underlyingtrends: weak labour force growth in the leading economies and financialrepression for decades as governments struggle to pay for rising entitlementspending. We forecast moderate trend growth and low real and nominal bondyields globally.

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